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The Opinion Pages | OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR

End the Korean War, Finally
Çѱ¹ÀüÀï ÀÌÁ¦´Â Á¾½ÄÇÒ ¶§


By JAMES DOBBINS and JEFFREY HORNUNGJUNE 8, 2017

North Korean soldiers carrying packs marked with the nuclear symbol look toward Kim Jong-un during a 2013 military parade in Pyongyang. CreditWong Maye-E/Associated Press
(»çÁø ¼³¸í) 2013³â Æò¾çÀÇ ±º»çÆÛ·¹À̵忡¼­ ÇÙÀ» »ó¡Çϴ ǥ½Ã°¡ µÈ ¹è³¶À» ¸à ºÏÇѱº º´»çµéÀÌ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀ» ÇâÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.

Sixty-four years ago the Korean War, which raged from 1950 to 1953 and killed more than 36,000 American soldiers, was suspended with a cease-fire agreement. A peace treaty, however, was never signed. The war never came to a formal end.
1950³â¿¡¼­ 1953³â±îÁö °Ý½ÉÇß´ø Çѱ¹ ÀüÀïÀº 36,000¸í ÀÌ»ó ¹Ì±ºÀÇ ¸ñ¼ûÀ» ¾Ñ¾Æ°¬À¸¸ç 64³â Àü ÈÞÀüÇÕÀÇ·Î ÁߴܵǾú´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ÆòÈ­ÇùÁ¤Àº ü°áµÈ ¹Ù°¡ ¾ø´Ù. Çѱ¹ÀüÀïÀº °ø½ÄÀûÀ¸·Î °áÄÚ ³¡³ªÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù.

North Korean leaders have long attached importance to formally ending the war. Over the years they have repeatedly raised the prospect of a peace treaty to resolve the many issues that the 1953 armistice left unaddressed, most notably agreement on the permanent division of the Korean Peninsula.
ºÏÇÑ ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº ¿À·¡µ¿¾È Çѱ¹ÀüÀïÀ» °ø½ÄÀûÀ¸·Î Á¾½Ä½ÃÅ°´Â ÀÏÀÇ Á߿伺À» °­Á¶ÇØ¿Ô´Ù. Áö³­ ¼ö³â µ¿¾È ºÏÇÑ ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº 1953³â ÈÞÀüÇùÁ¤ÀÌ ÇØ°áÇÏÁö ¸øÇÑ Ã¤ ³²°ÜµÐ ¸¹Àº ¹®Á¦µé, ±× Áß °¡Àå Áß¿äÇÑ °ÍÀ¸·Î ÇѹݵµÀÇ ¿µ±¸ÀûÀÎ ºÐ´Ü¿¡ °üÇÑ ÇÕÀÇ µîÀÇ ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÀÌÁ¦ ÇØ°áÇϱâ À§ÇØ ÆòÈ­ÇùÁ¤À» ¸Î´Â °¡´É¼ºÀ» °Åµì ŸÁøÇØ¿Ô´Ù.

At various times the North Koreans have proposed negotiating a treaty with the United States, at other times with South Korea. In recent years, China has also urged the opening of such negotiations.
ºÏÇÑÀº ¿©·¯ Â÷·Ê¿¡ °ÉÃÄ ¹Ì±¹°ú ±×¸®°í ¶§·Î´Â Çѱ¹°ú ÇùÁ¤ Çù»óÀ» Á¦¾ÈÇß´Ù. ÃÖ±Ù µé¾î Áß±¹ ¶ÇÇÑ ±×·¯ÇÑ Çù»ó Àç°³¸¦ Ã˱¸ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.

The North Koreans want a definitive declaration of peace, not just a truce, as reassurance that they won’t be attacked and as recognition by the United States, South Korea and the rest of the world that their country is a sovereign state and legitimate power.
ºÏÇѹεéÀº ´Ü¼øÈ÷ ÈÞÀüÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ¸íÈ®ÇÑ ÆòÈ­ÀÇ ¼±¾ðÀ» ÇÔÀ¸·Î½á, ºÏÇÑÀÌ °ø°ÝÀ» ´çÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó´Â º¸ÀåÀ» ¹Þ°í, ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÁֱDZ¹°¡À̸ç ÇÕ¹ýÀûÀÎ ±Ç·ÂÀÓÀ» ¹Ì±¹°ú Çѱ¹ ¹× Àü¼¼°è ±¹°¡µé·ÎºÎÅÍ ÀÎÁ¤¹Þ±â¸¦ ¿øÇÑ´Ù.

Successive American presidents have insisted on a number of preconditions before any serious peace negotiations could start, including a commitment to denuclearization and the halting of further missile tests. But North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jung-un, is unlikely to agree to give up his country’s nuclear and missile programs without receiving convincing assurances that he will not suffer the fate of Saddam Hussein of Iraq or Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya.
¹Ì±¹ ´ëÅë·ÉµéÀº ¿¬À̾î ÁøÁöÇÑ ÆòÈ­Çù»óÀ» ½ÃÀÛÇϱâ À§Çؼ­´Â Å»ÇÙÈ­¿Í ¹Ì»çÀÏ ½ÃÇè Áß´ÜÀ» ¾à¼ÓÇÏ´Â µî ¸¹Àº ÀüÁ¦Á¶°ÇµéÀÌ ÀÌ·ç¾îÁ®¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í °íÁýÇØ¿Ô´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÃÖ°íÁöµµÀÚ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀº Àڽŵµ À̶óÅ©ÀÇ »ç´ã Èļ¼ÀÎÀ̳ª ½Ã¸®¾ÆÀÇ ¹«¾Æ¸¶¸£ ¿¤ Ä«´ÙÇÇ¿Í °°Àº ¿î¸íÀ» °ÞÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó´Â È®¾àÀ» ¹ÞÁö ¾Ê°í¼­´Â ÀÚ±¹ÀÇ ÇÙ°ú ¹Ì»çÀÏ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥À» Æ÷±âÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

Formally ending the Korean War, including American recognition of the government in Pyongyang and an opening of diplomatic relations, is an essential component of such assurance. How can we persuade the North Korean leadership that they have nothing to fear if we won’t agree to definitively end the old conflict?
ºÏÇÑ Á¤±Ç¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÎÁ¤°ú ¿Ü±³ °ü°è¸¦ ¸Î´Â °Í µîÀ» Æ÷ÇÔÇÏ¿© °ø½ÄÀûÀ¸·Î Çѱ¹ ÀüÀïÀ» Á¾½Ä½ÃÅ°´Â °ÍÀº ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ È®¾àÀÇ Àý´ëÀûÀÎ ¿ä¼ÒÀÌ´Ù. ¸¸¾à ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ¿À·¡µÈ ºÐÀïÀ» È®½ÇÈ÷ ³¡³»±â·Î ¿ì¸®°¡ µ¿ÀÇÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù¸é ¾Æ¹«°Íµµ µÎ·Á¿öÇÒ °ÍÀÌ ¾ø´Ù°í ºÏÇÑ ÁöµµÃþÀ» ¾î¶»°Ô ¼³µæÇÒ ¼ö Àְڴ°¡?

Back in the Cold War, the United States and its West German ally faced some similar challenges. °ú°Å ³ÃÀü ´ç½Ã ¹Ì±¹°ú ¼­µ¶ µ¿¸ÍÀº ºñ½ÁÇÑ µµÀü¿¡ Á÷¸éÇß´Ù. In 1974 the United States recognized the German Democratic Republic and opened an embassy in East Berlin, while continuing to regard the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) as the sole legitimate successor government of the historical German state and of a future reunified Germany, which actually occurred 16 years later. One can imagine using similarly creative ideas in a peace treaty to bridge some of the differences between the two Koreas.
¹Ì±¹Àº µ¶ÀÏ ¿¬¹æ°øÈ­±¹(¼­µ¶)À» ¿ª»ç ¼ÓÀÇ µ¶ÀÏ ±¹°¡¿Í Àå·¡ ÀçÅëÀÏµÈ µ¶ÀÏ(½ÇÁ¦·Î 16³âÈÄ¿¡ ÀÌ·ç¾îÁü)ÀÇ À¯ÀÏÇÑ ÇÕ¹ýÀû °è½Â±¹À¸·Î °è¼Ó °£ÁÖÇÏ´Â ÇÑÆí, 1974³â µ¶ÀÏ ¹ÎÁÖ°øÈ­±¹(µ¿µ¶)À» ÀÎÁ¤ÇÏ°í µ¿µ¶¿¡ ´ë»ç°üÀ» ¿­¾ú´Ù. ¿ì¸®´Â ÆòÈ­ÇùÁ¤¿¡¼­ ÀÌ¿Í ºñ½ÁÇÏ°Ô Ã¢ÀÇÀûÀÎ ¾ÆÀ̵ð¾î¸¦ ½Ã¿ëÇØ µÎ Çѱ¹°£ÀÇ ÀϺΠ´Ù¸¥ Á¡µéÀ» ¿¬°áÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» »ó»óÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.

The Trump administration is giving one more try to longstanding efforts to compel Pyongyang’s denuclearization by employing intensified sanctions, cooperation with China and the threatened use of military force. Yet the new president in Seoul, Moon Jae-in, has promised a much softer stance toward North Korea and is likely to be open to direct talks with Pyongyang. President Trump himself has indicated a willingness to talk to Kim Jong-un.
Æ®·³ÇÁ ÇàÁ¤ºÎ´Â Á¦À縦 °­È­ÇÏ°í Áß±¹°ú Çù·ÂÇÏ¸ç ±º»ç·ÂÀ¸·Î À§ÇùÇÏ´Â ¹æ¹ýÀ¸·Î ¿À·¡ °è¼ÓµÇ¿Â ºÏÇÑ ºñÇÙÈ­¸¦ °­Á¦Çϱâ À§ÇÑ ³ë·ÂÀ» Çѹø ´õ ½ÃµµÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÇÑÆí Çѱ¹ÀÇ »õ·Î¿î ´ëÅë·É ¹®ÀçÀÎÀº ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÈξÀ À¯¿¬ÇÑ Åµµ¸¦ °ø¾àÇÑ ¹Ù ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ¾Æ¸¶ Á÷Á¢ ´ëȭⱸ¸¦ ¿­ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óµÈ´Ù. Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·É ¿ª½Ã ±èÁ¤Àº°ú ´ëÈ­ÇÒ ¿ëÀÇ°¡ ÀÖÀ½À» ¹àÇû´Ù.

One way or another, a peace agreement ending the Korean War is most likely a necessary element to any resolution of the North Korean nuclear challenge. American officials should be considering what would make an agreement work: What governments would participate? How would an agreement be verified and enforced?
¾î¶² ¹æ¹ýÀ¸·Îµç Çѱ¹ÀüÀïÀ» Á¾½Ä½ÃÅ°´Â ÆòÈ­ÇùÁ¤Àº ºÏÇÑ ÇÙÀ§ÇùÀÇ ¸ðµç ÇØ°áÃ¥¿¡ ²À ÇÊ¿äÇÑ ¿ä¼ÒÀÌ´Ù. ¹Ì±¹ °ü·áµéÀº ¾î¶»°Ô ÇÕÀǸ¦ ÀÌ·ç¾îÁö°Ô ÇÒ °ÍÀÎÁö, Áï ¾î¶² Á¤ºÎ°¡ Âü¿©ÇÒ °ÍÀÎÁö, ÇÕÀÇ´Â ¾î¶»°Ô ÀÔÁõµÇ°í ÁýÇàµÉ °ÍÀΰ¡¸¦ °í·ÁÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù.

Negotiations should not be pursued na?vely. The United States must not halt military exercises or take actions that would otherwise jeopardize its longstanding alliance with Seoul and give cause for other allies to question American commitment to regional security. At every step negotiators need to keep in mind that North Korea may not live up to its promises, as has been the case numerous times in the past.
Çù»óÀº Àü¹®Àû Áö½Ä ¾øÀÌ ÃßÁøµÇ¾î¼± ¾È µÈ´Ù. ¹Ì±¹Àº ±º»çÈÆ·ÃÀ» Áß´ÜÇϰųª Çѱ¹°úÀÇ ¿À·£ µ¿¸ÍÀ» À§ÅÂ·Ó°Ô ÇÏ°í ´Ù¸¥ µ¿¸Í±¹µéÀÌ Áö¿ª¾Èº¸¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ³ë·Â¿¡ Àǹ®À» Ç°°Ô ¸¸µé ÇൿÀ» Çؼ­´Â ¾È µÈ´Ù. ¸ðµç Çù»ó ´Ü°è¿¡¼­ Çù»ó°¡µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀº °ú°Å¿¡µµ ¼ö Â÷·Ê ±×·¨µíÀÌ ¾à¼Ó¿¡ ºÎÀÀÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ» ¼öµµ ÀÖÀ½À» ¸í½ÉÇØ¾ß ÇÒ ÇÊ¿ä°¡ ÀÖ´Ù.

The complete dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs should remain Washington’s ultimate objective. Standing ready to formally end the old war may be the key to getting there without starting a new one.
ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ¹«±â¿Í ºñ»çÀÏ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¿ÏÀüÇÑ ÇØü´Â ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ±Ã±ØÀûÀÎ ¸ñÀûÀ̾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. ¿¾ Çѱ¹ÀüÀïÀ» °ø½ÄÀûÀ¸·Î Á¾½Ä½Ãų äºñ¸¦ °®Ãß´Â °ÍÀÌ »õ·Î¿î ÀüÀïÀ» ÀÏÀ¸Å°Áö ¾Ê°í À̸¦ Çس¾ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¿­¼è°¡ µÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.

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James Dobbins, a former United States diplomat, is a senior fellow at the RAND Corporation. Jeffrey Hornung is a political scientist at RAND.
[¹ø¿ª ÀúÀÛ±ÇÀÚ: ´º½ºÇÁ·Î, ¹ø¿ª ±â»ç Àü¹® ȤÀº ºÎºÐÀ» ÀοëÇÏ½Ç ¶§¿¡´Â ¹Ýµå½Ã Ãâó¸¦ ¹àÇô ÁֽʽÿÀ.]
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